Count Every Vote, But not Every Voter
The U.S. Census Bureau publishes estimates of voter registration and turnout in its Current Population Survey following each presidential and off-year Congressional election. For the presidential elections of 2004, 2000, and 1996, voters respectively constituted 63.8%, 59.5%, and 58.4% of the 18+ eligible citizen population. For the off-year elections of 2006, 2002, 1998, and 1994, voters respectively composed 47.8%, 46.1%, 45.3%, and 48.3% of the eligible citizenry.
The turnout trend line in the three previous presidential elections has been up, with a significant 4.3% increase in 2004 over 2000. A fair guess of turnout in 2008 may well exceed 65%.
A two-thirds turnout means that fully one-third of eligible voters will not be counted when the results are tabulated. If 65% vote and if the election is close, it means that just over a third of the eligible electorate will decide the outcome.
Beware of the next president claiming a mandate for his policies.
The U.S. Census Bureau publishes estimates of voter registration and turnout in its Current Population Survey following each presidential and off-year Congressional election. For the presidential elections of 2004, 2000, and 1996, voters respectively constituted 63.8%, 59.5%, and 58.4% of the 18+ eligible citizen population. For the off-year elections of 2006, 2002, 1998, and 1994, voters respectively composed 47.8%, 46.1%, 45.3%, and 48.3% of the eligible citizenry.
The turnout trend line in the three previous presidential elections has been up, with a significant 4.3% increase in 2004 over 2000. A fair guess of turnout in 2008 may well exceed 65%.
A two-thirds turnout means that fully one-third of eligible voters will not be counted when the results are tabulated. If 65% vote and if the election is close, it means that just over a third of the eligible electorate will decide the outcome.
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