Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Bush Voters Helped Elect Obama

Arthur Lupia, a chaired professor of political science at the University of Michigan, has just released a commentary on the so-called “new voters,” who were trumpeted by the media as the cause of Obama's election.

Lupia shows that Obama would have won the electoral college, and thus the election, without any of the more than ten million votes Obama received over John Kerry’s total four years earlier (assuming he retained Kerry voters). A minimum of seven out of every hundred Bush voters in Ohio failed to vote for McCain, which by itself would enable Obama to win Ohio without any new voters.

The American National Election Studies 2008 analysis of over two thousand respondents disclosed that nearly one in four self-identified Bush voters did not vote for McCain. Fifteen percent voted for Obama and 7 percent stayed home, a shocking defection of 23.6 percent of 2004 Bush voters.

Bringing new voters to the polls was a great achievement for Obama. However, they were not essential for his victory.

As I previously blogged, “Less for the love of Obama, more for hatred of Bush and Republicans.”

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