Thursday, March 18, 2010

Obamacare is on the Verge of Reality

On March 18, 2010, Intrade, the on-line betting marketplace, puts enactment of Obamacare by June 30 at more than 70 percent. The odds on Obamacare have fluctuated between 30-77 percent during March.

Should it happen, Obamacare will be a huge political victory for him and the Democrat Congressional leadership. The pundits (journalists, bloggers, tweeters, radio commentators, television talking heads, etc.), who put passage at less than half during the past six months, will have greatly underestimated President Obama. Economists in university departments and think tanks who produced studies to show that Obamacare will fail to contain future cost increases, instead recommending market based solutions to improve health care and lower costs, will have lost to scholars in rival departments and think tanks supporting Obamacare.

In addition to transforming medical care and insurance in the United States, Obamacare will also transform politics. Any candidate who attacks Obamacare in the future will be accused of wanting to take health care away from Americans, followed by Medicare and Social Security. Obamacare will extend health insurance to 31 million of the country’s 46 million uninsured. In September 2009, the U.S. Census Bureau put the number of uninsured Hispanics at 14.6 million. Obamacare will provide low-and middle-income resident Hispanics households with subsidies to purchase health insurance.

The Pew Hispanic Center, using census data, estimated that 11.9 million illegal immigrants, largely from Latin America, are in the United States, of whom 6.8 million do not have health insurance. A new push for immigration reform, including amnesty, would extend Obamacare to millions as they become citizens. Hispanics, blacks, and Jews would reassemble in the coalition that elected Franklin Delano Roosevelt four times and gave Democrats Congressional majorities for decades.

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