Thursday, August 12, 2010

Democratic Stability in Iraq: A Growing Shia Alliance?

The media and blogosphere are replete with articles and comments about the growing strength of Al-Qaeda in Iraq and the defection of the Sons of Iraq, the Sunni Awakening, to Al-Qaeda for money and out of fear that a Shia government in Baghdad might turn upon them.

A Shia government in Bagdad with ties to Iran could threaten Sunnis and Kurds inside Iraq, along with Sunni-led states in Saudi Arabia and the oil-rich gulf Emirates. More than five months have passed since the March 7 national elections in Iraq and still no government has been formed. In a few more weeks, U.S. troop strength will be down to 50,000, too few to keep Iraq’s communal groups from each others’ throats.

It would be a supreme irony, after seven years, if the U.S. overthrow of Saddam Hussein results in a more dangerous Shia Iraqi-Iranian alliance. Just thinking...