Thursday, November 18, 2010

Will India Surpass China?

Not anytime soon.

A growing number of commentators are pushing the argument that India will overtake China in the coming years.  Their belief rests on the fact that India is a democracy, that its system of government is better suited to coping with the ups and downs of economic dislocation and political unrest.  Although China currently outproduces India, they posit that China’s authoritarian system is more fragile and that China’s economy is due for a serious crash.

One suspects that the pro-India crowd is guided by ideology.  Here are a few 2009 statistics to consider.

China exports, $1,294 billion.  (China population, 1.3 billion)
India exports, $177 billion (13.7% of China).  (India population, 1 billion)
Shenzhen exports, $162 billion. (Shenzhen population, 10 million)

Two more comparisons:

Taiwan’s exports, $203 billion.  (Taiwan population, 23 million)
Malaysia’s exports, $158 billion.  (Malaysia population, 28 million)

China leads India, by large margins, in almost every category of economic activity.

In 2010, for the first time, more Chinese than Indian students are enrolled in U.S. universities.

Democracy is preferable to authoritarian rule in many respects, but facts are facts.

(Source: For exports, CIA Factbook.)

No comments :