Monday, March 14, 2011

Time to Stock Up on Napa Valley Wines?

With the benefit of hindsight, it is easy to see that economists, financiers, investors, central bankers, mortgage bankers, investment banks, and economic pundits largely missed the financial crisis of 2007-09.  A handful got it right, of whom some made billions or hundreds of millions of dollars.  An event that wasn’t suppose to happen more than once every thousand years suddenly happened less than a hundred years after the Great Depression.

Carry this analogy over to Japan’s great earthquake-tsunami disaster.  What’s the risk that a total meltdown in one or more reactors will spew a Chernobyl-like stream of radioactive particles into the air, cross the Pacific Ocean over Northern California, and coincide with rain that washes radioactive particles into the soil of Napa Valley.  Were that to happen, it could destroy the 2012 crop of grapes.  Worse, were it to contaminate the soil, who knows how long it would take to replant?

Herewith my first investment tip on this site.  Don’t underestimate the risk that the above sequence of events could happen.  Stock up on Napa Valley cult wines in the event that no new supply comes on the market in the next year or longer.

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