Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Why Are So Many Economic Reports Unexpected?

It has become routine to say that economic reports on jobs, growth, inflation, consumer confidence, factory orders, home sales and prices, and other measures are “unexpected.”

How can this be?  Private and public economic forecasters have been trained in the nation’s finest universities and business schools.

Does anyone really expect that ten-year projections of deficit reduction have any credibility at all?  Does it matter if the long-term forecasts are put out by Democrats, Republicans, “independent agencies,” or White House staff?

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