Friday, November 6, 2015

Why Political Polls Have Become So Inaccurate

The “Shy Tory Voter” phenomenon has come to America.  On May 6, 2015, election eve in the United Kingdom, British polls showed the Conservative and Labor parties in a tie.  The outcome shocked everyone.  Conservatives trounced Labor, winning an absolute majority in Parliament.

Pre-election polls for the November 3, 2015, mid-term elections in the United States were way off the mark.  Projected Democrat victories turned into convincing Republican wins.  Liberal ballot measures went down to defeat, even in San Francisco!

Polling is a skill that requires making all kinds of assumptions about the electorate from a small sample of telephone interviews or online respondents.  But something has happened in the electorate that’s producing wildly inaccurate projections, a phenomenon that pollsters cannot estimate.

Your friendly proprietor believes that voters are treating pollsters the way politicians are treating their constituents.  Few political candidates are truthful in their statements about reality, other candidates, or their intentions.  In short, politicians lie, and the people know it.

Voters are sick and tired of being lied to.  In response, they have taken to lying to pollsters.  The universality of political correctness, which means that you cannot speak the truth on any controversial topic, because someone or some group will say it is hurtful, has filtered down to the business of polling.  Voters are increasingly lying to pollsters to avoid saying anything that might be deemed hurtful, but have no such concerns in the quiet secrecy of the polling booth.

If this supposition is correct, Republicans will win massive victories In November 2016.

1 comment :

James Hanley said...

Possibly. Do you have any empirical data?