Monday, April 11, 2016

The Growing Racial Divide In The Democrat Party

Hillary Clinton’s primary and caucus victories were due, in large measure, to black voters.  The table that follows through the Wisconsin primary on April 5, 2016, is a chronological list of Clinton’s wins, followed by the percentage black population in each state, and the share of the black vote she won in each state.  By way of reference, blacks constitute 13.2% of the U.S population (2013 estimate).   ND means I could not find a specific number.

Hillary Clinton’s Primary and Caucus State Victories

State                    Blacks %    Black Vote % (Clinton)

Nevada                        9.0                      76
South Carolina           27.9                      86
Alabama                    26.6                      90
Arkansas                    15.6                      88
Georgia                     31.4                       83
Massachusetts             8.1                       61
Tennessee                 17.0                       82
Texas                        12.4                       70
Virginia                     19.7                       84
Louisiana                  32.5                       ND
Mississippi                 37.4                       90
Florida                      16.7                       80
Illinois                       14.7                       60
Missouri                     11.7                       70
North Carolina           22.0                       80
Ohio                          12.5                       68
Arizona                       4.6                       ND

Clinton’s wins in Nevada and Arizona with below national average populations for blacks are due to her large majorities among Latino (or Hispanic) voters.  Massachusetts is the outlier

Next are the numbers for Bernie Sanders, again in chronological order.  He won all the primary and caucus states with small black populations.  Michigan was the only state he won in which blacks are a higher percentage of the state’s population than in the nation as a whole.

Bernie Sanders Primary and Caucus State Victories

State                                   Blacks %

New Hampshire                    1.5
Colorado                              4.4
Minnesota                            5.7
Oklahoma                            7.7
Vermont                              1.2
Kansas                                 6.2
Nebraska                             4.8
Maine                                  1.9
Michigan                            14.3
Idaho                                  0.8
Utah                                   1.3
Alaska                                 3.9
Hawaii                                2.3
Washington                         4.0
Wisconsin                            6.5

Although Clinton lost to Sanders in Oklahoma, Michigan and Wisconsin, she received 71%, 65%, and 75% respectively of the black vote in those three states.  I could not find any data on black percentages for Clinton in the other 12 states.

The only anomaly among Sanders’ wins is Michigan.

To summarize, Clinton’s successes are due to disproportionate support among blacks.  She is the “black” candidate.  Sanders draws very little support from blacks.  He is the “white,” especially the white youth, candidate.  The Democrat Party has divided into white and black camps in the 2016 presidential contest.

This gives new meaning to irony.  White students have been at the forefront of promoting diversity on college campuses for decades, embracing various forms of affirmative action to increase the share of black enrollment, black faculty, and black administrators.  Yet here they are opposing the black candidate in yuuuge numbers.

Why?  Perhaps they are burdened with large debts and can’t find jobs after graduation.  Perhaps they feel that reverse discrimination is unfair.  Perhaps they believe that the Obama administration has disregarded their concerns.  Who knows?  Perhaps no analyst or reporter has dared to raise this question lest it expose a dark secret in Democrat Party circle that the old Democrat coalition is breaking up.

A research note for this post.  I could not find an aggregator source on the Internet that compiled the percent black vote Clinton received in every state.  I had to cobble the data together through multiple searches, often on a state-by-state basis.  It is as if no one wanted to reveal the racial divide in the Democrat Party. 

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