Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Niall Ferguson Is An Honorable Man

To my esteemed, award-winning colleague and friend, Niall Ferguson, I say:  Welcome back from the dark side.  It takes guts to admit one’s mistake as Niall did at the Milken Institute in December 2016, when he said he was wrong to oppose Brexit.  In future visits to Britain, he vows to spend more time in pubs and less time fraternizing with establishment politicians.

Niall also issued a sort-of mea culpa on Trump in praising the president elect’s nomination of our distinguished colleague, General James M. Mattis, as Secretary of Defense.

Perhaps it’s only a matter of time until he says he wrote his anti-Trump columns under duress.  C’est possible?

Niall Ferguson is also a Stephen Schwartzman Visiting Scholar at Tsinghua University in Beijing, China.  Niall can take comfort knowing that Schwartzman has agreed to chair a Trump Economic Advisory Panel of leading men and women, including Democrats, from the world of business.

Niall has also acknowledged that he is eating a plate of black crow in having been wrong in opposing Brexit.  (Crows are among the smartest birds in the world.  They can make 50 distinct sounds communicating with each other.)  But to secure his return from the dark side, he should top off his meal with several portions of humble (not mince) pie.

What’s next on Ferguson’s to-do list?  For starters, he might encourage his countryman and our distinguished colleague, Timothy Garton Ash, to turn from the dark side by disavowing his claim that Frau Merkel is now leader of the free world.

The Hoover Institution is home to a trove of Trump bashers, more than any other free-market, conservative think tank.  Altogether, fifteen fellows trashed Trump, some mercilessly.  Of those, 13 were Republicans/Conservatives; only 2 were Democrats/Liberals.  A few have softened their prior harsh criticism.  Others may be too proud to walk back their criticism, so we’ll have to wait and see.  I’m from Missouri, the “show-me state.”

To Niall I say, “May the force be with you!”

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Think Tanks On A Shoestring

Artificial Intelligence (AI), machine learning, self-driving cars, robotic vacuums, sex dolls (sexbots), chatbots, waiterbots, and other robot applications are transforming the world.  Can think tank bots be far behind?

Thinks tanks are a HUUUUGE industry, two thousand-plus in the United States and seven thousand-plus worldwide.  They own billions of dollars of property and financial assets, spend billions in research and administration, employ several hundred thousand staff, produce trillions of pages of reports, studies, briefs, memorandums, tweets, blog posts, podcasts, videos, articles, and books—most of which are not read, heard, or seen.  They host thousands of seminars, speeches, lunches, dinners, retreats, and cruises.  This is an industry ripe for disruption.

I am reminded of the time I walked into the Bank of China building on the Bund in Shanghai in April 1981.  I saw 600 individuals sitting behind desks, each using an abacus to process information.  It seemed to me that one personal computer manned by one employee could replace all 600. 

Think tanks run the gamut from right to left in their political views, and vary in coverage from single issues to the full spectrum of domestic and international issues.  Some emphasize in-depth research, while others focus on daily issues.

Your friendly proprietor thinks there may be a better way to accomplish the objectives of think tanks, which would provide better analysis and commentary at a small fraction of the cost.  The task would require some initial start-up funding, an administrator, a couple of programmers, and two policy analysts.  That’s it.  (If you like what follows, let me know and we can get started right away.)

I’m going to describe the construction of a free-market think tank-bot.  Let’s abbreviate it as FMB.  I propose to take the works of Friedman, Becker, Stigler, Hayek, Mises, and the catalogue of several hundred Liberty Fund books and other free-market literature and feed them into the FMB.  Programmers will instruct the FMB to synthesize and curate the material to provide the best free-market response to any public policy issue, small or large, domestic or international.  They will feed the FMB carefully screened worldwide daily news.

The FMB will be able to supply free-market recommendations to any problem anywhere, with full (philosophical) explanation, evidence, and documentation.  It might offer a daily report on free-market solutions to ten pending issues free, but charge a modest fee for specific searches.

Total requirements are a staff of five—two programmers, two policy wonks, one administrator, a small workplace with furniture, computers, and other office necessities.  Once up and running, the FMB could function on an annual budget of about $1.5-2 million a year.  It should become self-sustaining in a short time, obviating the need for fund-raising, and even become profitable selling advertising.

Are you out there Peter Thiel?