Thursday, February 23, 2017

Beware of Pollsters Forecasting (Wrong) Election Results

Pollsters have fallen on hard times.  They were wrong on Brexit (Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union).  They were wrong on Trump.  They are likely to be wrong on Marine Le Pen, who is campaigning for president of France.  Why have the pollsters been, and are likely to continue to be, wrong?

Polls are taken for two purposes.  One is to sample public opinion on candidates, elected officials, policy choices, etc.  The second is to make news, to use the results of polls to emphasize a political trend or point of view for or against a specific politician or policy.

Years ago, most polls consisted of the first kind, to know what the public really thought.  Today, most are of the second kind, to try to sway public opinion in favor of one candidate or set of issues over others.

But it’s not the case that poll results are wrong half the time in one direction (say, liberal) and half in the opposite direction (conservative).  Rather, they are increasing wrong in favor of the liberal-centrist established order.

There is in the United States and other Western democracies a left-leaning (with a bit of centrism mixed in) “Academic, Media, Political Industrial Complex,” APMIC for short.  This interwoven political system is guilty of lying to the electorate, as President Trump would say, BIG TIME.  The voter’s trust in politicians sits at, or near, an all-time low, mirroring that of the main street media and leftist professors holding court in colleges and universities.

The pollsters, with few exceptions, are an integral part of APMIC.  The political establishment is its clients.  It’s hard, for some impossible, to acknowledge that one is part of a dishonest (lying) enterprise.

Pollsters have gotten recent elections wrong because voters have taken to lying to them, either face-to-face, over the phone, or online.  The pollsters don’t know how to compensate for lying.  It’s not part of standard polling methodology.

If pollsters were honest and admitted that they have no scientific basis to correct their measurements for lying, they would be hard pressed to earn a living.  Better to blame a wrong forecast on a “shock” they couldn’t measure or anticipate, and which their colleagues also got wrong.

With few exceptions, pollsters want their results to support APMIC.  As members of APMIC, they are contemptuous of nationalist movements, denigrating them and their leaders by calling them populist.  A survey of the pollsters themselves would likely show that they accept an outcome in which Marine Le Pen will come in first in the initial round of the April French presidential election.  However, they will forecast that she will lose by a large margin in the second round to the more mainstream second place winner in a runoff election two weeks later in May.  Your friendly proprietor thinks that pollsters will be wrong on Le Pen, much as they were on Brexit and Trump.

Stay tuned.

2 comments :

Tom Irwin said...

Help on How to Get Your Ex wife/husband Back..
My wife and I have been married for 7 years on November 11th. She recently told me she wasn't in love with me that she loved me more like a friend. She said she wants a divorce that she has been unhappy for a year now. I've been not so good as far as making promises and not keeping them but I have been trying to change and it doesn't seem to work. I love my wife to death and I took my vowels very seriously. I asked her to go to marriage counciling and she said no.we have 4 kids. We agreed to a 2 month break and try to work things out after that. Some of the problems we face are not having our own place to live and may be debt pile up. I really want things to work. The hurt that I feel is killing me and I’m to the point where I don’t eat and rarely drink anything.one day i was online and there was one particular testimony I saw, it was about a woman called Silvia Soulez ,she testified about how Dr .Goodluck brought back her Ex lover in less than 17 hours and at the end of her testimony she drop Dr .Goodluck e-mail address. After reading all these,I decided to give Dr .Goodluck a try. I contacted him via email and explained my problems to him. In just the space of 17hours, my wife came back to me. We solved our issues, and we are even happier than before. Dr .Goodluck is really a talented and gifted man and i will not stop publishing him because he is a wonderful man…If you have a problem and you are looking for a real and genuine spell caster to solve that problem for you. Try the great Dr .Goodluck today, he will be the answer to your problems. Here’s his contact:
Email him at: goodluck05spellcaster@gmail.com ,
Call him or add him on whats-app: +2348138654465
Or on His website: http://goodluck05spellcaster.yolasite.com

He can help with a pranancy spell
He can help cure HIV
Help in getting Love back
Finding your Soul Mate for life
and so many more

Tom Irwin, Manchester, United Kingdom

evanson said...

I was very nervous and had been researching Penis Enlargement surgery for a few months. I decided to get a consultation with Dr. James and I'm so glad I did. His work makes you feel very comfortable and Dr. James is there to answer all your questions and give you the confidence and reassurance you need to have faith about having a positive outcome for your procedure. It has been someday since my procedure and so far I am very happy with my results. I definitely recommend Dr. James. you can consult him direct to his personal Email enlargementherbs@yahoo.com or whatSapp him on his number at +2349055637784