Apart from a brief flirtation with democracy immediately
after the fall of the Qing Dynasty in 1911 and the emergence of multi-party
democracy in Taiwan in 1992, autocrats have ruled China throughout its history.
China has been governed by regional nobles, national
emperors, warlords, and Communist Party leaders. The current Communist leader is Xi Jinping,
author of “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism With Chinese Characteristics For The
Modern Era,” a 14-point statement that has been incorporated into the
Constitution. President Xi has
eliminated the traditional limit of two five-year terms for the Chinese Communist
Party paramount leader.
China’s Communist leaders have worked hard to eliminate the
stain of Western imperialism that began with the Opium War in 1839 and ended on
the Chinese mainland with the founding of the Peoples Republic of China in
1949. Mao Zedong’s successor, Deng
Xiaoping, formulated the doctrine of “one country, two systems,” under which
Hong Kong and Macao were promised a high degree of autonomy to maintain unchanged
their capitalist way of life for 50 years.
Recovering Hong Kong (1997) and Macao (1999) eliminated the remaining
enclaves under Western control on the Chinese mainland. Absorbing the Republic of China on Taiwan
into the mainland is the remaining objective to complete the unification of
China.
The philosophy and practice of Communist Party governance has
not taken the form of a straight upward trajectory. There have been bumps along the road. Think in terms of “two steps forward one step
backward,” “one step forward one step pause,” and other combinations of
advancement, retrenchment, and holding patterns. President Xi’s current dance with President
Trump over a trade agreement may appear that Xi is making concessions to Trump
to avoid risking a slowdown in China’s growth.
That would be wrong. Any
concessions Xi makes should be seen as a temporary measure along the way to
fulfilling his (and China’s) domestic and foreign policy goals.
What is Xi’s ambition?
First is securing China’s dominance in economic, political, and military
power throughout East Asia, pushing the West, specifically the United States, away
from China’s sphere of influence. Second is expanding China’s influence
throughout Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Central Asia, concurrent with a gradual
reduction of America’s military presence in Afghanistan, Central Asia, and the
Middle East. Third is increasing Chinese
influence in Europe (“one belt one road”) and enhancing China’s influence in
Africa, the Caribbean, and Latin America.
President Xi can deploy the wealth generated from decades of high growth
in pursuit of China’s regional and global ambitions.
Does President Xi really understand American politics? Or is
he getting mistaken advice that America can be pushed out of Asia and lacks the
will to complete with China for global influence? Perhaps Xi was poorly advised about President
Trump in his early encounters with him.
Perhaps Xi believes that Trump desperately wants a trade deal to win reelection
in 2020 and that Trump will make concessions.
Perhaps he believes U.S. polls showing Trump trailing several Democrat
candidates and that he can wait until 2021 when a Democrat takes over the
conduct of U.S. foreign policy. Even if
Xi signs what seems to be a one-sided deal in America’s favor, do not expect
China to adhere to the spirit and letter of an agreement. If you want evidence, Hong Kong people were
promised that they could elect their Chief Executive by universal suffrage. So much for that promise!
Xi is well on the way to attaining Chinese dominance in East
Asia. The U.S. cannot deploy all its
military and economic resources to contain China as America also confronts
problems in Europe, the Middle East, the Arctic, and Africa. The U.S. has also entered a period of
increasing racial/ethnic and other political divisions which will occupy
political attention at home. China can
bide its time till it takes the net big step forward.
It would be a mistake to listen to the American doomsayers
of China’s diminishing economic prospects.
They have been wrong for 40 years.