Monday, December 16, 2019

Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party Blowout Win In Britain On December 12, 2019, Foretells President Trump’s Reelection in 2020

President Trump will be reelected in 2020.

The Hoover Institution lists 200 Fellows on its website.  Some are full-time, some part-time, some in residence, some off-campus, some short-term visitors, some long-term visitors, and so on.  Of the 200 or so affiliated with Hoover in 2016, I was the only Fellow to predict that Trump would win.  I did so in writing two weeks before the election.  My witnesses included Professor David Brady, General Jim Mattis, and a handful of others.

I based my prediction on what is known as “the shy Tory voter.”  When Prime Minister Theresa May’s June 2016 referendum on Brexit was approved, the result shocked almost all British pollsters and political experts.  The explanation was “shy Tory voters” who did not tell the pollsters their real voting intentions.

From Brexit, I surmised that Presidential Candidate Donald Trump would be the beneficiary of “shy Trump voters,” who would not tell American pollsters their true voting intentions.  I further surmised that Hillary Clinton would not do as well among Black voters as Barack Obama had done in 2008 and 2012.  I was right.  I put my money where my mouth was and won a spectacular one-star restaurant lunch.

Fast forward to December 12, 2019.  In the final days of the five weeks Parliamentary elections campaign, British polls showed Jeremy Corbyn’s Labor Party narrowing the lead of Johnson’s Conservatives.  Many headlines speculated on a ”Hung Parliament,” in which no party wins an absolute majority.

Once again, “shy Tory voters” turned out, this time in greater force than in the 2016 referendum.  Conservatives won constituencies that had been reliably labor for decades, in one case for a century.  Browse British media on December 13, 2019, and you will find lots of differing explanations.  I’m not a student of British politics, so I’ll let the experts fight it out.

Between now and November 2020, American pollsters, media, pundits, and professors will point to polls showing Trump losing supporters from all walks of life.  They will try to explain why 2020 is different from 2016, and that Johnson’s huge victory in Britain cannot be duplicated in America because conditions in the two countries are different.  They will be wrong again.

Trump will win at least as many electoral votes as in 2016, perhaps even more.  You can trust my forecast with a high degree of confidence.  After all, I was the only Fellow among 200 Hooverites who got it right.

Thursday, December 5, 2019

Xi Jinping Thought Fails The Test Of Fighting Man-Made, Global Warming, Climate Change

Xi Jinping Thought consists of fourteen basic policies.

Number 4:  “Adopting new science-based ideas for ‘innovative, coordinated, green, open and shared development.’”  (bold added)

Number 9:  “Coexist well with nature with ‘energy conservation and environmental protection’ policies and ‘contribute to global ecological safety.’”  (bold added)

Coal is the dirtiest source of greenhouse gas emissions.  China is the world’s greatest user of coal and continues to add new plants at an enormous pace.

Here are the data.

Between 2006 and July 2019, China added 761,417 MW of new coal-fired capacity.  India is in second place with 164,814 MW.  The rest of the world outside China and India only added 167,037 MW of new coal-fired capacity.

The amount of new capacity added in China from January 1 through July 31 is 17,890 MW (annualized at 30,668 MW), again more than the rest of the world together.  This trend will continue for years to come.

A detailed analysis of China’s coal-fired capacity, showing it is out of step with the rest of the world, can be read here.

Watch what people or countries do, not what people or countries say.  As I have oft stated, I’m from Missouri, the “Show Me” State.

Wednesday, December 4, 2019

Xi Jinping Thought Fails The Test Of Diversity And Inclusion

Xi Jinping is the “core” of China’s leadership.  Xi Jinping Thought is the political foundation of the Chinese Communist Party and constitutes the governing principles of the Chinese government.  Xi Jinping’s leadership and Thought are not to be questioned or challenged in any way by the Chinese people.  It is only to be studied and elaborated in accordance with the Central Party School’s instructions.

Let’s change venues before explaining how Xi Jinping Thought fails the test of Diversity and Inclusion.  Open the web site of any American university and you will find a web page devoted to Diversity and Inclusion.  At Stanford, that page includes a statement by President Marc Tessier-Lavigne:

“Diversity and inclusion are essential to Stanford’s strength.  A university depends, at its core, on the free and open exchange of ideas in a culture of mutual respect.  It also depends upon the participation and inclusion of people of all backgrounds, races, genders, abilities, identities, ideologies, and ways of thinking.”  (bold added)

The free and open exchange of ideas is completely rejected in Xi Jinping Thought.  Western-styled democracy cannot be considered as an alternative to absolute rule by the Chinese Communist Party.

Xi Jinping Thought consists of fourteen basic principles. 

Number 1:  “Ensuring Communist Party of China (CPC) leadership over all forms of work in China.”  That is about as all-encompassing of a doctrine that can be formalized.  There is no sector of “work” that is or can be separate from CPC leadership.

Number 7:  “’Practice socialist core values,’ including Marxism, Communism, and Socialism with Chinese characteristics.”

Number 11:  “The Communist Party of China should have ‘absolute leadership’ over Chinas People’s Liberation Army.”

Number 14:  “Improve party discipline in the Communist Party of China.”

Are these four principles of Xi Jinping Thought compatible with President Tessier-Lavigne’s statement on the free and open exchange of ideas, which is the core of a university?  (bold added)

Stanford’s motto is “Die Luft der Freiheit Weht,” “The Wind of Freedom Blows.”  Can that motto be practiced by faculty and students studying or conducting research at Stanford Center at Peking University (SCPKU)? Can Stanford faculty give a lecture or organize a conference at SCPKU on criticizing Xi Jinping Thought?  Will Chinese participants at SCPKU events be willing to speak freely or even attend such an event?  Or will Xi Jinping Thought be strictly off limits?

Tuesday, December 3, 2019

Xi Jinping Thought Fails Its First Major Test

Xi Jinping Thought, short for Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, which has been incorporated in China’s Constitution, consists of 14 basic policies.

Number 12:  Promoting the “one country, two systems” model for Hong Kong and Macao with a future of “complete national reunification” and to follow the One-China policy and 1992 Consensus for Taiwan. 

The introduction by the Hong Kong government, most likely at the urging of the Central Government in Beijing, of an Extradition bill on March 29, 2019, set off a storm of protests now entering its ninth month. (seeprevious post)  Xi Jinping must have been appalled to see Hong Kongers waving American, British, and even former Hong Kong colonial flags on Thanksgiving after President Donald Trump signed a Hong Kong bill.

The Extradition bill was a bridge too far.  It set back the harmonious working of the “one country, two systems” model designed by Deng Xiaoping.  It deeply alienated Hong Kongers.  China’s hand-picked Chief Executive and Executive Councilors now face an unending period of anger and hostility from the people they try to govern.  The Extradition bill confirmed fears of what “one country, two systems” would mean for Taiwan people.

Someone or some people gave Xi Jinping bad advice on dealing with Hong Kong.  Or perhaps Xi decided on his own to force an Extradition bill on Hong Kong.  Regardless, he failed.

Will the scholars in any of the hundreds of Xi Jinping Thought Institutes in China report on this failure and recommend corrective measures?  Not likely.

Looking ahead to possible future failures, four of the fourteen principles in Xi Jinping Thought concern the centrality of the Chinese Communist Party over all walks of life in China and strengthening the Party’s internal discipline.  One of the four declares “people as the masters of the country,” the exact opposite of China’s top-down ruling system.  Two concern socialist core values of Marxism, Communism, and Socialism with Chinese characteristics.  Two are Xi’s version of the “Green New Deal (numbers 4 and 9),” which is hardly consistent with China opening a coal-fired power plant every week.

Authoritarian ideologies come and go.  Xi Jinping Thought is no exception.  Ask the former rulers of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe.